Market & Topical Perspectives

Welcome Letter from Mehdi Mahmud

Welcome Letter from Mehdi Mahmud

Market sentiment oscillated across 2023 as participants struggled to get a read on the trajectory and duration of the current rate-hike cycle. For every risk rally fueled by hopes that the terminal rate was near, there was a hawkish string of data or central bank rhetoric to recalibrate expectations and bring markets back down to earth.

Mehdi Mahmud
                      Mehdi Mahmud,
President and Chief Executive Officer

The acceleration of risk assets into year-end, however, suggests markets have grown increasingly confident in the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve its much-desired soft landing of target-level inflation and uninterrupted economic expansion. But we’re not overlooking the fact that, statistically, landing is the most precarious stage of any flight. As such, it’s worth considering the pronounced bouts of turbulence that emerged throughout 2023 and the implications they may have going forward.

The first of these was the failure of several midsized US regional banks in March, idiosyncratic in nature but sourced from a common root: the massive fiscal stimulus rolled out in response to the disruptions from Covid-19. The increase in money supply not only contributed to the spike in inflation, it also produced a commensurate expansion of bank deposits. With short rates near zero, many banks sought to scratch out additional yield through increased exposure to long-dated Treasuries, risk-free from a credit perspective but subject to the same duration risk as any other fixed-rate asset. Facing tens of billions of dollars in depositor withdrawals, a number of banks were forced to liquidate these Treasury holdings at massive losses following the sharp rise in interest rates.

While government intervention soothed jittery markets, the bank failures underscored the pronounced vulnerabilities inherent in today’s financial system. Nowhere is this perhaps more evident than in sovereign debt. High and rising debt levels aren’t unique to the US, but the country deserves special mention as the issuer of the global reserve currency. We have for some time voiced concerns about both the level of the country’s debt and its likely trajectory; by August, Fitch Ratings appeared to come around to our way of thinking, cutting its long-term credit rating on US sovereign issuance by one notch. Though markets initially shrugged off the downgrade, 10-year Treasuries sold off sharply in late summer and early fall, with yields testing levels around 5% that hadn’t been seen since before the global financial crisis.1

Though this rate spike eventually eased, we’re keeping a close eye on the country’s fiscal condition and its impact on both Treasury market supply/demand dynamics and the term premia demanded by buyers for what appears to be an increasingly risky proposition. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts persistent federal deficits and mounting debt over the next several decades, suggesting Treasury issuance is likely to expand. And since the Fed is no longer a buyer of new issuance and is letting a large portion of maturing bonds roll off its balance sheet, public markets are responsible for both absorbing new deficit spending and refinancing maturing paper. Despite the risks presented by rising interest expenses and an expanding pile of debt, continued dysfunction in the US political system—as ably demonstrated by the midyear debt-ceiling standoff—suggests repeated party-line stalemates may be far more prevalent than concrete progress toward fiscal consolidation.

Ultimately, the market’s ups and downs in 2023 seemed to mirror the shifting global mood. But while financial assets generally finished the year upbeat, strife and uncertainty remain constants. The war between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of abating, and the horrific attack by Hamas on Israel in early October has sparked a new front of death and destruction in the Middle East. More than half the world’s population will have the opportunity to vote in national elections during the coming year, but true enfranchisement remains rare; a dismaying number of these contests range from authoritarian shams to cynical exhibitions of polarization.2 Even the upcoming Summer Olympics, with its potential to unite disparate nations in appreciation of the physical mastery and mental fortitude on display, carry the undercurrent of foreboding that seems omnipresent in today’s world.

Though we generally expect conditions in 2024 to be less sanguine than current market valuations seem to imply, we’ve long understood the benefits of focusing only on those things we can control. By striving for excellence in the execution of our individual responsibilities, no matter the size or scope, we believe we can position First Eagle to deliver on our goal of delivering long-term shareholder value while avoiding the permanent impairment of capital.

 

Sincerely,

Mehdi signature

Mehdi Mahmud
President and Chief Executive Officer,
First Eagle Investments
December 2023

 

1. Source: Bloomberg; data as of December 31, 2023.
2. Source: The Economist; data as of December 14, 2023.

The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the firm. These materials are provided for informational purposes only. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice. Any statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of this information cannot be guaranteed. The views expressed herein may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue hereof. The information provided is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell or the solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any fund or security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Risk Disclosures

All investments involve the risk of loss of principal.

There are risks associated with investing in securities of foreign countries, such as erratic market conditions, economic and political instability and fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

A principal risk of investing in value stocks is that the price of the security may not approach its anticipated value or may decline in value. “Value” investments, as a category, or entire industries or sectors associated with such investments, may lose favor with investors as compared to those that are more “growth” oriented.

The value and liquidity of portfolio holdings may fluctuate in response to events specific to the companies or markets, as well as economic, political or social events in the US or abroad. During periods of market volatility, the value of individual securities and other investments at times may decline significantly and rapidly. The securities of small and micro-size companies can be more volatile in price than those of larger companies and may be more difficult or expensive to trade.

Investment in gold and gold-related investments present certain risks, including political and economic risks affecting the price of gold and other precious metals, like changes in US or foreign tax, currency or mining laws, increased environmental costs, international monetary and political policies, economic conditions within an individual country, trade imbalances, and trade or currency restrictions between countries. The price of gold, in turn, is likely to affect the market prices of securities of companies mining or processing gold and, accordingly, the value of investments in such securities may also be affected. Gold-related investments as a group have not performed as well as the stock market in general during periods when the US dollar is strong, inflation is low and general economic conditions are stable. In addition, returns on gold-related investments have traditionally been more volatile than investments in broader equity or debt markets. Investment in gold and gold-related investments may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other assets and types of companies.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Alternative Investment Risks
Alternative investments can be speculative and are not suitable for all investors. Investing in alternative investments is only intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks associated with such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing. Certain of these risks include:

  • Loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment;
  • Lack of liquidity in that there may be no secondary market or interest in the strategy and none is expected to develop;
  • Volatility of returns;
  • Interest rate risk;
  • Restrictions on transferring interests in a private investment strategy;
  • Potential lack of diversification and resulting higher risk due to concentration within one or more sectors, industries, countries or regions;
  • Absence of information regarding valuations and pricing;
  • Complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting;
  • Less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds;
  • Use of leverage, which magnifies the potential for gain or loss on amounts invested and is generally considered a speculative investment technique and increases the risks associated with investing in the strategy;
  • Carried interest, which may cause the strategy to make more speculative, higher-risk investments than would be the case in absence of such arrangements; and
  • Below investment grade loans, which may default and adversely affect returns.

Asset-based lending (ABL) is corporate borrowing supported by specific assets of the borrower.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index of economic and market variables that aims to identify potential turning points in the business cycle.

Credit-risk transfers (CRTs) are transactions that transfer the credit risk of all or a tranche of a portfolio of financial assets.

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price of a bond or other debt instrument to a change in interest rates.

Fitch Ratings is a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) registered with the SEC that provides credit rating as an assessment of credit worthiness of an issuer with respect to debt obligations, including specific securities, money market instruments or other bonds. Ratings are measured on a scale that generally ranges from AAA (highest) to D (lowest); ratings are subject to change without notice. Not Rated (NR) indicates that the debtor was not rated and should not be interpreted as indicating low quality.

Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) were established and chartered by the US federal government for public policy purposes. They are private companies, and their securities are not backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government.

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are financial instruments collateralized by pools of mortgages.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households in the US.

Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index.

ICE BofA MOVE Index is a measure of US interest rate volatility. It is a yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month Treasury options.

MSCI China Index (Net) measures the performance of large and midcap representation across China A shares, H shares, B shares, Red chips, P chips and foreign listings. A net-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income net of withholding taxes.

MSCI EAFE Index (Net) measures the performance of large and midcap securities across 21 developed markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. A net-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income net of withholding taxes.

MSCI World Index (Net) measures the performance of large and midcap securities across 23 developed markets countries around the world. A net-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income net of withholding taxes.

Russell 1000® Growth Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-value ratios and higher forecasted growth values. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

Russell 1000® Value Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

Russell 2000® Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

S&P 500 Index (Gross/Total) is a widely recognized unmanaged index including a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading sectors of the US economy. Although the S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with approximately 80% coverage of US equities, it is also considered a proxy for the total market. The S&P 500 includes dividends reinvested. A total return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

Large Blend Morningstar Category: Large blend portfolios are fairly representative of the overall US stock market in size, growth rates and price. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as large cap. The blend style is assigned to portfolios where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. These portfolios tend to invest across the spectrum of US industries and, owing to their broad exposure, the portfolios’ returns are often similar to those of the S&P 500 Index.

Large Growth Morningstar Category: Large growth portfolios invest primarily in big US companies that are projected to grow faster than other large cap stocks. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as large cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields). Most of these portfolios focus on companies in rapidly expanding industries.

Large Value Morningstar Category: Large value portfolios invest primarily in big US companies that are less expensive or growing more slowly than other large cap stocks. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as large cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value and cash flow).

Small Blend Morningstar Category: Small blend portfolios favor US firms at the smaller end of the market-capitalization range. Some aim to own an array of value and growth stocks, while others employ a discipline that leads to holdings with valuations and growth rates close to the small cap averages. Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as small cap. The blend style is assigned to portfolios where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate.

Small Growth Morningstar Category: Small growth portfolios focus on faster-growing companies whose shares are at the lower end of the market-capitalization range. These portfolios tend to favor companies in up-and-coming industries or young firms in their early-growth stages. Because these businesses are fast-growing and often richly valued, their stocks tend to be volatile. Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as small cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Small Value Morningstar Category: Small value portfolios invest in small US companies with valuations and growth rates below other small-cap peers. Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as small cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value and cash flow).

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